IT WAS A GREAT NIGHT.
So, I know the debate happened last night, and we'll get to that in a mo...not that it changed anything...
By now you all know how obsessed I am with FiveThirtyEight. Not least of all because I love looking at the little pie chart that now says there's a 95.1% probability that Obama will win the election. Not to mention a 53.6% chance of an Obama landslide. YEAH B*TCHES!
Hoo. Anyway, see what our old buddy Nate Silver (who was hard at work just as early as I was, apparently) has to say about the early voter turnout in swing states.
It's looking really good, people. The early votes show a MUCH bigger advantage for Obama than the state polls have. Of course, we can't take the early voting results as necessarily indicative of the overall election results...Nate says early voters are 98-99% strongly partisan, so it's not really those swing voters who are getting their votes in early...
On the other hand, in the past the early voter population has been older and more male than the overall population; in 200 and 2004, this translated to an early vote count that trended Republican. So what do the bright blue numbers mean?
"What these results would seem to suggest, however, is that there are fairly massive advantages for the Democrats in enthusiasm and/or turnout operations. They imply that Obama is quite likely to turn out his base in large numbers; the question is whether the Republicans will be able to do the same.
Keep in mind that there are veteran pollsters like Ann Selzer who think that most of her colleagues are vastly understating the degree to which youth and minority turnout is liable to improve in this election; Selzer's polls have been 5-6 points more favorable to Obama than the averages in the states that she's surveyed. So while these early voting numbers could turn out to be something of a curiosity, they could alternatively represent a canary in the coal mine for a coming Democratic turnout wave."
All signs point to victory.
And hekebolos at DailyKos has some personal insight into possible reasons for a great early voter turnout that also brings great hope for election day: apparently, the canvassing volunteers for the Obama campaign are incredibly well-prepared and well-organized. See, that's the kind of thing that makes me feel good about donating.
Oh, yeah, remember yesterday's blog when we talked about how negative advertising is all McSame has left? Yeah? Oh oh oh it's not working.
From Harold Moss, who animated the "History of the USA"segment from "Bowling for Columbine," a cartoon explaining the difference between what McSame and the GOP say about the Iraq War and the truth. That is to say, everything.
Now on to the debate, since we must! But first, Relevant Rhino cracked me up yesterday with his vision of how the debate would go.
So here's my reaction to the debate: THE PHILLIES ARE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES!!!
No, seriously, I didn't really watch the debate. I just assumed it was going to be as boring as the last two...but I did catch some of it between commercials: the "I'm not Bush" line, the question about their nasty campaign ads, and the part where they spoke about abortion.
One thing I was really confused about on McSame's part was why in the name of bob he would BRING UP the comments of Rep John Lewis?? This is just one more example of his campaign keeps chopping off it's own legs in an effort to put even a scratch in Obama's lead. How McSame thought he was going to remind voters that his and Palin's conduct had been compared to that of a virulent racist, and simultaneouly make Obama look like the bad guy for not speaking out against what was a scalding and frankly apt comparison, I'll never know.
My impression was that McSame did quite well at giving the wingnuts what they wanted; thus, this debate became just another chapter in the long, tragic tale of how his campaign seems to have forgotten that they need to focus on winning INDEPENDENT voters.
And none of the Repulsicans seem to get that. Yesterday, WaPo asked five different pundits for their opinions on what might make tonight's debate actually mean something. It was interesting, not really as political analysis but as a partisan case study. The breakdown:
Democrats: "Obama will come out on top/Nothing McSame does will improve his chances."
Republicans: "McSame has a chance to shift the campaign momentum, and he should do it by attacking Obama and the left."
Me: "The debate will be boring/Kenley will lose or else/Go Phillies."
It's like the right never picks up a newspaper! I'm certain that's what his base wants to see - but to be frank, with the CBS/NYT poll showing only 39% of likely voters would pull the lever for McSame, I think it's clear he's gonna need to win over some folks outside of his base. And if they hadn't noticed, the negativity really isn't doing it for them.
Frankly, to me, the way McSame's been running his campaign is the ultimate proof that he's just another George W: they appear to have in common the uncanny ability to pursue a failed strategy in the face of almost universal disagreement and dismay. Beating a dead horse with another dead horse while a chorus of dead horses sing "The old gray mare just ain't what she used to be." Is that a strategy or a tactic?
Anyway, here's what the WaPo pundits had to say about the debate in today's "PostPartisan."
It's funny, but the fact that the debate was so much more interesting that the other three seems to have made the post-debate analysis proportionately more boring. But it was great to watch CNN's 360 crew last night as one by one the pundits agreed McSame had performed better than ever, and then the polls came in showing Obama won by an even bigger margin than he had the previous debates. That brief pause in which they all try to figure out how to reconcile McSame's "improved" performance with people "loving Barack Obama even more with each passing moment" was hi-larious.
Well, what can we expect, really? It was pretty much the end of all hope for the McSame campaign. StuHunter at DailyKos put together an impressive list of all of the right wing pundits jumping ship on the McSame campaign.
So what are the pundits supposed to say? Kula2316's post-debate roundup shows you their best efforts.
Peas and mushrooms. Donate.
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